So many factors determine how well a team will fare and how far they will go in the MLS Cup Playoffs.
How the teams performed the regular season (whether teams can accentuate the good habits and cloak the bad ones), goalkeeping, preferably the hot kind, head-to-head competition with their playoff foes, how teams play on the road and who's got Big Mo on their side must be taken into consideration.
No, we're not talking about Mo Johnston, the director of soccer at Toronto FC, one of six teams that will be fulltime spectators this MLS postseason. It's the mo in momentum, which has become sooooo important in the league's 13-year history.
Of the four teams competing for Eastern Conference glory and beyond, two are on a roll and two others aren't. Unfortunately, the two have been doing quite well -- the Columbus Crew and Kansas City Wizards -- will meet in one conference semifinal series. The two other struggling sides -- the Chicago Fire and New England Revolution -- will meet in the other.
That being said, here is one intriguing stat unearthed while researching the final playoff teams -- not one of these four teams have a player who finished in double figures in goal-scoring (in fact, out of the eight playoff teams, the only clubs that can boast a player in their lineup are the Houston Dynamo and Brian Ching and the New York Red Bulls and Juan Pablo Angel).
A quick synopsis of the two series:
No. 2 Chicago Fire (13-10-7) at No. 3 New England Revolution (12-11-7)
First leg: Thursday, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass., 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2/Deportes)
Chicago Fire
The 5-2 drubbing of the New York Red Bulls last Thursday notwithstanding, the Fire did not play their best soccer down the stretch, going 2-3-2 in their final seven games. The team lives and dies with Cuauhtemoc Blanco. If he is on his game, then watch out. First-year coach Denis Hamlett, who replaced the hastily departed Juan Carlos Osorio, has done well keeping this team above water and with the second-best defense in the league only to the Houston Dynamo.
Strengths: Blanco (seven goals, 11 assists), with his uncanny ability to find an open teammate, is a plus, but until recently he wound up playing under the radar. Chicago needs the Mexican standout to be at the top of his game in the postseason, his flip-flops and all. He is complimented by Logan Pause, who hasn't recorded a point, but his hard work in the middle of the field has been key for the team and Justin Mapp (eight assists). Chris Rolfe (team-high nine goals) is just off his best game as a pro (hat trick vs. the Red Bulls). Late-season addition and veteran Brian McBride (five goals, two assists in 11 games) could team with Rolfe to make a lethal combination up front. Jon Busch has enjoyed a career year (league-best 1.10 GAA, 10 shutouts). Busch and his defense, led by Costa Rican international Gonzalo Segares and MLS original Diego Gutierrez (who will be calling it a career after this season), gave up a conference-low 33 goals this season. Brandon Prideaux and Wilman Conde help form one of the best, if not the best backlines in the league.
Weakness: Well, Blanco, if he pulls off another disappearing act. Can the midfield produce enough scoring opportunities?
New England Revolution
Coach Steve Nicol has his work cut out for him in the opener. The Revs enter the postseason winless in their last six games (0-4-2) as he will miss four starters, including the club's two most important scoring threats. But don't underestimate this wily and experienced playoff coaching veteran as tries to concoct a strategy and lineup to stifle the Fire and make the most of a dire situation. The Revs are undefeated at home in the playoffs (9-0-4). Yes, they fell in the 2002 MLS Cup Final to the Los Angeles Galaxy, but that was considered a neutral-site game, even though the fans were partisan to the Revs.
Strengths: After a slight midseason dip, Shalrie Joseph has bounced back to secure his position as the best defensive midfielder in the league. Michael Parkhurst is still one of the league's best defenders, playing at a high level, called for only nine fouls in 28 appearances. Jeff Larentowicz has been a mainstay in the midfield. Goalkeeper Matt Reis, who had his marathon game streak snapped this season, hasn't enjoyed the heights of previous seasons, but he still can make the big save when called upon.
Weaknesses: The Revs already have four strikes against them without their two most important players in Steve Ralston (right fibula fracture) and Taylor Twellman (concussion-related symptoms). They each had eight goals. Without them, the Revs will be stretched to produce many dangerous scoring opportunities. Forward Adam Cristman (six goals) also is out after right toe surgery. So their top goal-scorers are Kheli Dube (four) and Larentowicz (four). Add the absence of defender Gabriel Badilla and midfielder Khano Smith, who were red-carded in the meaningless regular season finale loss (3-1) to the Wizards, and the opening match will be an uphill battle. Mauricio Castro could get the starting nod for Smith in this encounter and Kenny Mansally (three goals) is expected to start with Dube up front.
Outlook
The Fire won the season series, winning all three encounters by a combined score of 9-1. These teams know each other quite well, as they have met six of the last seven postseasons (except for 2004). New England's prospects look bleak, especially in the first game, as it will be missing four key players. The Fire should be favored in this series. If the Revs fall, it would be the first time in Nicol's coaching career that he failed to reach at least the conference final.
No. 1 Columbus Crew (17-7-6) at No. 4 Kansas City Wizards (11-10-9)
First leg: Saturday, Community America Ballpark, Kansas City, Kan., 7 p.m. CT (HDNet/Direct Kick/MLSLive.TV)
Columbus Crew
Before the season few fans, observers and media gave the Crew much love as Columbus was expected to be watching the playoffs from the outside. After all, Columbus hadn't reached the postseason for three consecutive seasons, so you could understand why many people did not have much confidence in the team. But coach Sigi Schmid, thanks to the patience of the Hunt family, the team's owners, did a marvelous job of putting the team together with experience and youth. The Crew started out 1-1 and then got everyone's attention with a five-game winning streak and never looked back. Columbus went on to win the Supporters' Shield. The Crew are 8-1-2 in their last 11 games. Their only loss during that span was a 3-1 defeat by the New York Red Bulls on Oct. 18.
Strengths: Where do you begin? Let's start with the fabulous Guillermo Barros Schelotto (seven goals, league-best 19 assists), who has enjoyed an MVP-type season as the team focal point. The attack (league-best 50 goals), which is led by its midfield, can leave its calling card in many ways behind the likes of Alejandro Moreno (nine goals), Robbie Rogers (seven) and Brad Evans (five). The Crew knows how to attract fouls and free kicks as Rogers (73), Moreno (69) and Schelotto (63) wound up among the top four in fouls suffered in the league. Moreover, Columbus has played well as a team and that's what it's all about. The defense has been solid behind Chad Marshall, Frankie Hejduk, Danny O'Rourke and left back Gino Padula (the Crew is 11-1-2 with him in the lineup) in front of goalkeeper Will Hesmer (1.14 GAA, 10 shutouts). Schelotto is complimented in the midfield with a hard-working bunch, including Robbie Rogers, Eddie Gaven, Brad Evans, Nigerian Olympic silver medalist Emmanuel Ekpo and holding midfielder Brian Carroll, who has been a force starting counterattacks. Versatile Pat Noonan (one goal, two assists, could very well be a playoff wildcard for this side. He has a history of scoring key goals.
Weaknesses: They do not have many, if any. There isn't one go-to man up front as Moreno is the top goal-scorer (nine). But the Crew have made out just fine by sharing the wealth, thank you.
Kansas City Wizards
Like the Crew, the Wizards are playing well recently. They are 5-1-1 in their last seven matches and unbeaten in their last four games (3-0-1), their last loss 2-1 to Chivas USA on Sept. 27. And, they have been difficult to beat at home, sporting a 7-0-3 mark in their last 10 games. Give coach Curt Onalfo high marks for lifting his team out of some horrible mid-season doldrums. The Wizards went 1-4-4 during a nine-game stretch from July 17-Sept. 9 before rebounding to their current, dangerous form.
Strengths: Like the Crew, the Wizards do their scoring by committee, but they haven't scored as many. Davy Arnaud (seven goals) leads the way, followed by central defender Jimmy Conrad (six, mostly off set pieces), which is excellent for a defender, and Argentinean standout Claudio Lopez (six). During their recent seven-game span, the Wizards have found the back of the net 13 times, thanks to the additions of Herculez Gomez and Abe Thompson, who came from Colorado and FC Dallas, respectively. Veteran John Wolff (three goals, three assists in 12 games) has played well when healthy. Wouldn't the Los Angeles Galaxy love to have goalkeeper Kevin Hartman (1.30 GAA, nine shutouts) back? Second-year pro Michael Harrington has been a plus on the backline.
Weaknesses: With Wolff (fibular stress reaction) injured, that will be a minus. While Conrad's goals has been impressive, his defense hasn't been as consistent as it has been in the past. The U.S. international and five-time MLS all-star has struggled at times without Nick Garcia (who was sent to the expansion San Jose Earthquakes) and vice versa, according to MLS insiders who have seen him play several times this season. The Wizards' 39 goals is the lowest of the eight playoff teams.
Outlook
It's too bad these two teams have to meet this early. They are two teams who playing well and unfortunately someone will have to go home early after the second weekend in November. The magic number for the Crew could be three, as in the number of goals the club has scored against K.C. while compiling a 2-0-1 record. For the Wizards to win, they will have to keep the series a low-scoring one. A shootout favors the Crew. All things being equal, Columbus might have too much for the Wizards. In fact, the Crew might have too much for everyone this year.
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