It's October, and though the sun is setting on Major League Soccer's regular season, every team remains technically eligible for the playoffs. That means every match has the potential to be a bloody back alley brawl.
Even the clubs sitting at the bottom of the Eastern and Western heaps can still eat their way up the food chain to claim a place -- implausible as that scenario may be for a couple of the strugglers.
At first glance, you could make the case that Los Angeles and Real Salt Lake are the two clubs courting the most disaster this weekend. Just to look at their records and their opponents' marks, the temptation is great to say the clubs under Bruce Arena and Jason Kreis have the most to fear in Round 28. It's tempting to think, "Nobody wants to be either of those teams this weekend."
But is that really the case? Dig a little deeper into the nuance of October, and you might see that L.A. and RSL aren't exactly dead clubs walking.
Arena's Galaxy take their wounded-but-breathing playoff ambitions into Columbus, where Sigi Schmid's Crew was last seen putting a serious bruise on a good New England squad. Yes, it does look like tough sledding in Ohio for Landon Donovan and the gang. The Galaxy, after all, are a club with one lonely win in their last 14 outings.
That won't get it done, obviously.
Then we have Real Salt Lake, a team that did turn over a huge road win last weekend. Still, Kreis' club can't feel great about its chances away from Utah. The collective work over 27 previous rounds says it pretty clearly; RSL have just eight points on the road this year, which is tied for last in the league.
Weighed down by that reality, Real Salt Lake travel across the country to face New England. No opponent ever relishes a meeting on the turf at Gillette. New England might have slipped a bit at home this year, with a 6-4-3 mark in Foxborough. But the Revs are 33-12-15 at Gillette in the last four years. And that hardly stinks.
But maybe the scenario isn't as dark as all that for RSL. Nor for the Galaxy. Why? It's the way of October in MLS, where clubs with an edge in motivation can -- and often have -- trumped clubs of superior form or ability.
For instance, Columbus could find it difficult to sustain its current edge. Even the greatest motivational master among coaches simply can't manufacture hardship if it's not there. And there is nothing "hard" or "ship" about Columbus at the moment. The Crew are sitting pretty.
So it's certainly possible that desperation carries the day -- and only one team has that. Los Angeles will be absolutely laser-locked on its mission: to avoid missing the MLS Cup Playoffs for a third consecutive year. They'll probably need to win three of their last four. Lose Saturday in Crew-ville, and they face the nearly unconceivable: win out or miss out.
The Crew, meanwhile, have locked away a playoff spot. The men of yellow sit eight points clear of second-place New England. So even with regards to protecting home-field advantage through the playoffs, there's not much real reason to dirty up those all-yellows. In order to grab overtake Columbus for first place, the Revs would have to win three of their next four while banking on the Crew to practically cease operations.
Columbus, with the Supporters' Shield all but sewn up, too, does have one motivational ploy to play: if the Crew can grab up six more points, they will post the best MLS single-season point total of the last three years. That's not much -- but it's something.
Much of the same logic applies to Real Salt Lake and New England. The Revs and the Chicago Fire are quite close already to being locked into a first-round matchup. One win by each club would probably seal the deal.
Meanwhile, Real Salt Lake are pressed from all directions, smack in the middle of the seven-team West. A win (or even a tie) on the weekend before the big Rio Tinto Stadium debut might vent some pressure going into the milestone night in Utah.
We see examples of this motivational imbalance at work every year about this time. Last year, for instance, Columbus was desperate to keep its playoff hopes alive last year in an October visit to New England, which already had its postseason ticket stamped. Riding a big performance from Guillermo Barros Schelotto -- a tip to things to come in 2008, perhaps -- the Crew defeated the Revs that night in Foxborough, 3-2.
A week later, Kansas City climbed aboard the Playoff Express with a slightly improbable final-weekend victory at FC Dallas; the Hoops had their playoff berth safely in pocket. The Wizards had won just three of 14 on the road, but needed a win in order to get back past the playoff velvet rope. Curt Onalfo's team did just that, claiming all three of the telling points.
Two years ago, it was more of the same near the campaign's end. D.C. United had secured their spot early and were coasting into the postseason. New England came to RFK in early October still looking to firm up its positioning. Goals by Taylor Twellman and Clint Dempsey helped the Revs rally from an early deficit in the 2-1 road win.
A week later, Colorado captured the last available spot in the West by going down to Houston to steal a point from the Dynamo, which was snugly fit into its playoff spot, unable to move up or down regardless of the result. So the Rapids, just 2-10-3 on the road to that point, and facing the team that would eventually win the MLS Cup, was able to heroically stitch together a 3-3 tie and sneak into the postseason by the slimmest of margins.
And so it goes. It's just the way of October in MLS -- and it makes the last few weeks a more interesting place.
It might not seem like happy times for Los Angeles and Real Salt Lake this weekend. But things could be worse.
PLAYOFF RESET
If the playoffs were today:
East
No. 1 Columbus vs. No. 4 New York
No. 2 New England vs. No. 3 Chicago
West
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Real Salt Lake
No. 2 Chivas USA vs. No. 3 Colorado
Who has games in hand: Every team has played 26, except Houston and San Jose, with 25 each in the books.
Most significant game of the week: It's tough, because all seven matches in Round 28 will have something important to say in the playoff jockeying. But Chivas USA at D.C. United might speak the loudest. Chivas currently sits in second, but by a threadbare margin, with three Western pursuers within three points. Theoretically, Preki's men could fall from second to fifth by late Saturday night.
For United, well, it's just about time to step up or step aside. Lying ahead are potentially difficult dates at Columbus and Houston, along with a home match against New England. Getting points off Chivas USA, now reinforced by the injury-mended Jesse Marsch and Alex Zotinca and by Sasha Victorine's recent acquisition, is anything but a cinch. But Saturday's contest at RFK appears to represent the best chance for forward movement from Tom Soehn's team.
Men of the moment: No team needs a big performance any more that the Red Bulls need one from Juan Pablo Angel. New York was in good shape heading into September. But a troubling month ended with a 1-3 record, and Juan Carlos Osorio's team is suddenly perched on less steady ground. With second leading scorer Dave van den Bergh still sidelined by injury, a goal or two from Angel might be enough to get his side past Toronto at Giants Stadium.
For Los Angeles, David Beckham just hasn't recaptured that wonderful early season form, when he was hooking up regularly with Edson Buddle and Landon Donovan.
Beckham has no goals and just two assists since July 10. The former England captain has played in just six of L.A.'s 10 matches since then, as international absences stripped away a few opportunities. Still, with the Galaxy playoff hopes seriously on the skids, a little more production from Los Angeles' prize attacker would go far in keeping Bruce Arena's team in the hunt.
In Colorado, the Rapids have a chance to wrestle at least a point, if not more, from the Houston Dynamo. Dominic Kinnear's league champions are playing well, having just finished that wild 4-4 Champions League shootout in Mexico City with Pumas UNAM. But Houston will be finishing a passport-testing 12-day odyssey, one that took the travelers to four countries. The two-time defending champs could be vulnerable.
Cory Gibbs had been a big part of Colorado's recent turnabout, but the rangy U.S. center back wasn't at his best last week against New York. The Rapids offense helped atone with five goals on the road. Now back at Dick's Sporting Goods Park for the weekend's encounter with Houston, a renewed performance from Gibbs could see the Rapids significantly strengthen their playoff positioning.
No comments:
Post a Comment